A Power Ranking Based on Math, and nothing else.
I set up a formula to help me see which teams were actually as good or as bad as their record. This formula accounts for strength of schedule and rewards a team for beating opponents who have winning records (66% win percentage or better). Taking it one step further, I have also have another value that accounts for teams who have 66% or better win percentage, but haven't played tough opponents, in other words, an easy strength of schedule.
So, I'm not sure if I am explaining it well at all, but, I have taken all the math and plugged it into formulas in excel, then I input who each team has played, their records, the score differential, and whether it was a home game or a road game. This can only work if you input all the teams as their is a certain butterfly effect that each team has on each other. For instance, the Browns have an 0-4 record, so they look like a weak team, and they might be, however we have to understand that they played the Eagles who have the highest value of any team in the league with an 8. In order to understand how tough the Eagles are, you have to look into their schedule to this point, sure they played the Browns and the Bears, two of the lowest valued teams using this formula, but, they get rewarded for point differential against them. They've had differentials of 19, 15, and 31. We have to award points, or partial points for differential as a team can't help its schedule, so it is unfair to them to not reward them for beating the bad teams by a large differential, after all, that is what good teams should do. So, in order to figure out how good or bad a team is you need to see who they've played, then you need to see who those people have played, and you keep going until you've covered the entire league.
The way it works, each team ends up with a value, based on the information listed above, after that, they also have a strength of schedule curve that gets added. The higher the value, the better. As you'll see, the teams records' do not always mean a higher value. As I said earlier, the Eagles have the highest value in the league with an 8, they are 4-0, however, the Broncos who are also 4-0 have the 8th highest value in the league with a 5.25. These numbers are BEFORE we curve for strength of schedule, you'll see how that affects each team as well.
So here it goes, first, without the Strength of Schedule curve:
Now, we see that the Vikings might actually be the best team in the league and it drops the Eagles down to the 5 spot, and moves the Bills up to the 3 spot. Also the Browns are no longer the worst team in the league, the Colts are.
So, I'm not sure if I am explaining it well at all, but, I have taken all the math and plugged it into formulas in excel, then I input who each team has played, their records, the score differential, and whether it was a home game or a road game. This can only work if you input all the teams as their is a certain butterfly effect that each team has on each other. For instance, the Browns have an 0-4 record, so they look like a weak team, and they might be, however we have to understand that they played the Eagles who have the highest value of any team in the league with an 8. In order to understand how tough the Eagles are, you have to look into their schedule to this point, sure they played the Browns and the Bears, two of the lowest valued teams using this formula, but, they get rewarded for point differential against them. They've had differentials of 19, 15, and 31. We have to award points, or partial points for differential as a team can't help its schedule, so it is unfair to them to not reward them for beating the bad teams by a large differential, after all, that is what good teams should do. So, in order to figure out how good or bad a team is you need to see who they've played, then you need to see who those people have played, and you keep going until you've covered the entire league.
The way it works, each team ends up with a value, based on the information listed above, after that, they also have a strength of schedule curve that gets added. The higher the value, the better. As you'll see, the teams records' do not always mean a higher value. As I said earlier, the Eagles have the highest value in the league with an 8, they are 4-0, however, the Broncos who are also 4-0 have the 8th highest value in the league with a 5.25. These numbers are BEFORE we curve for strength of schedule, you'll see how that affects each team as well.
So here it goes, first, without the Strength of Schedule curve:
| Eagles | 8.00 |
| Vikings | 7.00 |
| Raiders | 6.00 |
| Bills | 5.50 |
| Falcons | 5.50 |
| Rams | 5.50 |
| Patriots | 5.25 |
| Broncos | 5.25 |
| Packers | 4.75 |
| Ravens | 4.00 |
| Seahawks | 4.00 |
| Giants | 3.75 |
| Cowboys | 3.50 |
| Steelers | 2.50 |
| Saints | 2.25 |
| Cardinals | 2.25 |
| Texans | 2.00 |
| Redskins | 1.25 |
| Chiefs | 1.00 |
| Buccaneers | 0.75 |
| 49ers | 0.75 |
| Jaguars | 0.25 |
| Panthers | 0.00 |
| Titans | 0.00 |
| Dolphins | 0.00 |
| Lions | -0.50 |
| Bengals | -1.00 |
| Chargers | -1.00 |
| Jets | -1.25 |
| Bears | -1.75 |
| Colts | -1.75 |
| Browns | -2.25 |
As you would expect, the Eagles are first and the Browns are dead last, but look where the Bills are, in the 4 spot. I need to point out again, this is all math and no emotion.
Now, after we account for Strength of Schedule:
| Points | W/SOS | Wins | Losses | |
| Vikings | 7.00 | 9.13 | 4 | 0 |
| Raiders | 6.00 | 8.94 | 3 | 1 |
| Bills | 5.50 | 8.44 | 2 | 2 |
| Falcons | 5.50 | 7.75 | 3 | 1 |
| Eagles | 8.00 | 7.50 | 3 | 0 |
| Rams | 5.50 | 7.44 | 3 | 1 |
| Patriots | 5.25 | 7.38 | 3 | 1 |
| Giants | 3.75 | 7.25 | 2 | 2 |
| Saints | 2.25 | 7.06 | 1 | 3 |
| Ravens | 4.00 | 6.38 | 3 | 1 |
| Buccaneers | 0.75 | 5.38 | 1 | 3 |
| Seahawks | 4.00 | 5.25 | 3 | 1 |
| Cardinals | 2.25 | 5.25 | 1 | 3 |
| Steelers | 2.50 | 4.81 | 3 | 1 |
| Broncos | 5.25 | 4.75 | 4 | 0 |
| Panthers | 0.00 | 4.63 | 1 | 3 |
| Cowboys | 3.50 | 4.50 | 3 | 1 |
| Packers | 4.75 | 4.33 | 2 | 1 |
| 49ers | 0.75 | 3.80 | 1 | 3 |
| Titans | 0.00 | 3.63 | 1 | 3 |
| Texans | 2.00 | 3.19 | 3 | 1 |
| Redskins | 1.25 | 3.13 | 2 | 2 |
| Chiefs | 1.00 | 1.88 | 2 | 2 |
| Jaguars | 0.25 | 1.75 | 1 | 3 |
| Dolphins | 0.00 | 1.56 | 1 | 3 |
| Bears | -1.75 | 1.50 | 1 | 3 |
| Jets | -1.25 | 1.13 | 1 | 3 |
| Browns | -2.25 | 0.75 | 0 | 4 |
| Bengals | -1.00 | 0.63 | 1 | 3 |
| Lions | -0.50 | -0.19 | 1 | 3 |
| Chargers | -1.00 | -0.56 | 1 | 3 |
| Colts | -1.75 | -0.75 | 1 | 3 |
The Rams at 3-1, are very similar to the 2-2 Bills. This is a home game for the Rams on a west coast trip, but it's always easier to go west than it is to come east. The Bills left for L.A. today, so if they don't adjust for the time change, it will feel like they are playing at 4:35pm our time, much better than feeling like a 10am game. Slight edge to the Rams on this one, but, I think the Bills win.
posted by Out Of Bounds at
8:15 PM
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