Thursday, November 03, 2011

Bills Jets matchup

Ok... So it's Jets week, and that means putting up with some of the most annoying NFL fans in the nation, Jets fans.

I have had conversations with quite a few Jets fans this week and they were very frustrating, to say the least. The most common comment I got from them is "the Jets match up well against the Bills". I don't know if there is some give-us-hope website that these Jets fans are getting this from but when I hear "the Jets match up well against the Bills", I say, "Maybe, possibly, but I don't know. I don't think so".

Let's talk about matchups, shall we?

Fred Jackson, tops the league in all purpose yards, he has the fourth most yards in the NFL (721), he has the second highest average (5.5) amongst running backs. He's facing off against the leagues 25th ranked run defense. The Jets defense looked as though it would be tough to run against after they held Felix Jones to just 44 yards in week one, and holding the entire Dallas team to just 64 total yards on the ground. But, as it turns out, Felix Jones has been struggling this year eclipsing the 100 yard mark only once in 5 games, and breaking 50 yards only once in the remaing 4 games.

Week 2 Maurice Jones-Drew ran for 88 yards on 18 carries (4.8 ypc) add Karims 15 yards on 6 carries and the Jaguars get 103 yards on the ground. Not a horrible day for the Jets rushing defense, but any optimism that they were going to be strong against the run was shattered the following week when Darren Mcfadden shredded the Jets D for 171 yards on 19 carries, that's 9 yards per carry, moore took a carry 23 yards for 194 total yards on the ground for the Raiders.

The next week the Ravens gained 112 yards on the ground between Ray Rice (66 yards) and Ricky Williams (49 yards). A 3 yard loss by Flacco totals 112. Things didn't get much better when the Jets rushing defense took on the Patriots. Benjarvus Green Ellis ran for 136 yards on 27 carries, and 152 total rushing yards for the Patriots. Miami gained 118 yards on the ground between Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas (who?). And then there's the Chargers who are only the second team all season that the Jets held under 100 yards, they gained 96 total yards on the ground.

I know it sounds weird with DMC and MJD on the list, but Fred Jackson is the best running back that the Jets will have faced this year. Most yards and higest YPC average of any runningback the Jets have faced. I expect Freddy to get 25+ carries in this game, that's only happened twice this season with 26 rushing attempts against the Eagles and 26 carries against the Redskins. I can't see this Jets defense stopping Freddy, it could be a long day for them.

Bills 13 ranked Passing offense vs the Jets 7th ranked Pass Defense.

Another thing I hear from Jets Fans is Revis this Revis that, I have a mancrush on Revis.It's true, he's good, no, great. But again, we're talking about how these teams match up against each other, because after all, Jets fans say that the Jets matchup well against the Bills. But here's the problem Jets fans, Revis can't cover the entire team, more specifically, Revis can't cover Fred Jackson. Again, he is in the top of the league for all purpose yards. Also, the Bills offense does not depend on one WR. The Bills offensive scheme actually favors this matchup, it's about getting the ball out quickly to the open guy. That means David Nelson, Donald Jones, Freddy Jackson, even Naaman and Spiller will get into the mix. I'm not forgetting about Cromartie, but the Bills run a lot of 4 and 5 wide spread, so Revis really isn't that important in this game. Also, I don't anticipate much passing so it makes Revis even less of a factor.

Which leads me to another point: Typically teams that are bad in rushing defense have better stats in the passing game because teams are too busy running all over them, and therefore throw less.

The Bills 24th passing Defense vs the Jets 22nd ranked pass Offense

The Bills passing defense has been giving up a lot of yards which is why they are ranked so low, but they lead the league in interceptions, which gives them a leg up on this matchup. Marcel Dareus looks like he will be a force at nose tackle, actually, the best matchup to watch on Sunday lies here, Dareus vs Mangold. Because as Jets fans told me the Redskins are not exactly world beaters, but, 10 team sacks against any NFL team is very impressive. If the Bills pass rush looks 1/3rd as good as it did against the Skins that means 3.33 sacks, and a rough day for Sanchez, who, hasn't exactly been lighting up the league this season.

The Bills 20th ranked rush Defense vs the Jets 28th ranked run offense

As uninspired as the Jets passing offense looks, the rushing O looks even worse. It's been very subpar this season and with Dareus at NT I don't see the Jets rushing getting any better.

As much as Jets fans think the Bills match up well for the Jets, I say, no... the Jets match up very well for the Bills.

Also, since the running game with Fred Jackson is going to be a big part of this game, I expect to see some play-action in this game.

With Donald Jones back in the lineup, look for the Bills to install some more deep passes back into their gameplan.

The Bills should be working with good field position all day long, and perhaps a defensive TD (from a pick 6) that should help put this game away.

24-10 Bills.