NFL Networks Good morning football gives Bills some love

Peter Schrager gave the Bills a ton of praise on Monday morning during his Good Morning Football show in a segment called "Sunday Shockers"

"My most shocking thing is what the Bills are doing right now" was his lead into his Sunday Shocker.

"...yesterday they had 312 rushing yards on an NFL defense, I mean the 49ers are not some college outfit, they're an NFL team" he said as the highlights of the game against the 49ers started rolling. As he went on he said some really good things about the Bills, and even admitted that they don't get mentioned enough because they are the Buffalo Bills.

"I look at the Buffalo Bills right now, and we're talking about the Patriots and they can do no wrong, the Bills beat the Patriots.  Whether Brady was in there or not, it counts in the standings, they're 4-2, they're winners of 4 straight, they're playing some of the best football in the league, but because they're the Buffalo Bills we don't talk about them enough...all the stories were about Kaepernick... I don't care if it was Aaron Rodgers in his heyday, they weren't beating this Bills team... I love the Buffalo Bills right now"

Also as a quick sidebar, someone should tell Kyle Brandt that the Stadium at One Bills Drive is now called New Era Field:

...there's no kind of fans like Buffalo fans, we love you all, but when they're winning it's a special special kind of place. I can not imagine the party at the Ralph yesterday".

NFL Networks Good morning football gives Bills some love

The NFL Network's Peter Schrager gave the Bills a ton of praise on Monday morning during his Good Morning Football show, during a segment called "Sunday Shockers"

"My most shocking thing is what the Bills are doing right now" was his lead into his Sunday Shocker.

"...yesterday they had 312 rushing yards on an NFL defense, I mean the 49ers are not some college outfit, they're an NFL team" he said as the highlights of the game against the 49ers started rolling.

As he went on he said some really good things about the Bills, and even admitted that they don't get mentioned enough because they are the Buffalo Bills.

"I look at the Buffalo Bills right now, and we're talking about the Patriots and they can do no wrong, the Bills beat the Patriots.  Whether Brady was in there or not, it counts in the standings, they're 4-2, they're winners of 4 straight, they're playing some of the best football in the league, but because they're the Buffalo Bills we don't talk about them enough."

"...all the stories were about Kaepernick... I don't care if it was Aaron Rodgers in his heyday, they weren't beating this Bills team... I love the Buffalo Bills right now"

Also as a quick sidebar, someone should tell Kyle Brandt that the Stadium at One Bills Drive is now called New Era Field:

"...there's no kind of fans like Buffalo fans, we love you all, but when they're winning it's a special special kind of place.  I can not imagine the party at the Ralph yesterday".

After 5 Weeks Power Rankings

If you saw my article last week then you will better understand these numbers, This power ranking is based only on algorithms consisting of win/loss records, point differentials, strength of schedule, home or road game, among others.  The computer takes this information and assigns a value to each team.  The first number you will see is before we apply the Strength of Schedule curve, the second number is with the curve. 

This is how the teams rank, also please note, these are through 5 weeks, so last nights Denver and San Diego game will not be inputted until the week 6 schedule is complete:

	Points	Complete Points	Wins	Losses
Falcons	9.25	12.25	4	1
Bills	8.25	12.00	3	2
Vikings	9.25	11.25	5	0
Raiders	6.50	10.00	4	1
Giants	3.75	8.9	2	3
Saints	2.50	8.63	1	3
Ravens	5.00	8.15	3	2
Eagles	7.25	7.88	3	1
Rams	4.75	7.60	3	2
Redskins	4.25	7.35	3	2
Steelers	4.75	6.95	4	1
Cowboys	6.00	6.85	4	1
Broncos	4.75	6.35	4	1
Patriots	5.00	6.20	4	1
Packers	3.75	5.31	3	1
Buccaneers	1.25	5.30	2	3
Titans	1.50	5.20	2	3
Texans	1.00	5.05	3	2
Cardinals	1.50	5.00	2	3
Seahawks	4.50	5.00	3	1
Lions	2.50	4.70	2	3
Panthers	0.00	4.65	1	4
Bears	-0.75	3.44	1	3
Chiefs	2.00	3.06	2	2
Jets	-0.75	2.80	1	4
Jaguars	0.75	2.56	1	3
49ers	-1.25	2.10	1	4
Chargers	-0.75	1.45	1	4
Bengals	-1.75	1.05	2	3
Dolphins	-0.75	0.95	1	4
Colts	-0.75	0.55	2	3
Browns	-4.00	0.20	0	5

Notice that the Bronco's, even with a 4-1 record are only ranked 13.  So it's not all that surprising that they lost to the 1-4 Chargers.

Subsequently the Bills are ranked 2nd, so they should easily beat the 49ers, who are ranked 27.  Nobody has seen Kaepernick in Chip Kelly's offense, so anything can happen.  That's why they play the game.

A Power Ranking Based on Math, and nothing else.

I set up a formula to help me see which teams were actually as good or as bad as their record.  This formula accounts for strength of schedule and rewards a team for beating opponents who have winning records (66% win percentage or better).  Taking it one step further, I have also have another value that accounts for teams who have 66% or better win percentage, but haven't played tough opponents, in other words, an easy strength of schedule.

So, I'm not sure if I am explaining it well at all, but, I have taken all the math and plugged it into formulas in excel, then I input who each team has played, their records, the score differential, and whether it was a home game or a road game.  This can only work if you input all the teams as their is a certain butterfly effect that each team has on each other.   For instance, the Browns have an 0-4 record, so they look like a weak team, and they might be, however we have to understand that they played the Eagles who have the highest value of any team in the league with an 8.  In order to understand how tough the Eagles are, you have to look into their schedule to this point, sure they played the Browns and the Bears, two of the lowest valued teams using this formula, but, they get rewarded for point differential against them.  They've had differentials of 19, 15, and 31.  We have to award points, or partial points for differential as a team can't help its schedule, so it is unfair to them to not reward them for beating the bad teams by a large differential, after all, that is what good teams should do.  So, in order to figure out how good or bad a team is you need to see who they've played, then you need to see who those people have played, and you keep going until you've covered the entire league.

The way it works, each team ends up with a value, based on the information listed above, after that, they also have a strength of schedule curve that gets added.  The higher the value, the better.  As you'll see, the teams records' do not always mean a higher value.  As I said earlier, the Eagles have the highest value in the league with an 8, they are 4-0, however, the Broncos who are also 4-0 have the 8th highest value in the league with a 5.25.  These numbers are BEFORE we curve for strength of schedule, you'll see how that affects each team as well.

So here it goes, first, without the Strength of Schedule curve:

Eagles	8.00
Vikings	7.00
Raiders	6.00
Bills	5.50
Falcons	5.50
Rams	5.50
Patriots	5.25
Broncos	5.25
Packers	4.75
Ravens	4.00
Seahawks	4.00
Giants	3.75
Cowboys	3.50
Steelers	2.50
Saints	2.25
Cardinals	2.25
Texans	2.00
Redskins	1.25
Chiefs	1.00
Buccaneers	0.75
49ers	0.75
Jaguars	0.25
Panthers	0.00
Titans	0.00
Dolphins	0.00
Lions	-0.50
Bengals	-1.00
Chargers	-1.00
Jets	-1.25
Bears	-1.75
Colts	-1.75
Browns	-2.25

As you would expect, the Eagles are first and the Browns are dead last, but look where the Bills are, in the 4 spot.  I need to point out again, this is all math and no emotion.

Now, after we account for Strength of Schedule:

	Points	W/SOS	Wins	Losses
Vikings	7.00	9.13	4	0
Raiders	6.00	8.94	3	1
Bills	5.50	8.44	2	2
Falcons	5.50	7.75	3	1
Eagles	8.00	7.50	3	0
Rams	5.50	7.44	3	1
Patriots	5.25	7.38	3	1
Giants	3.75	7.25	2	2
Saints	2.25	7.06	1	3
Ravens	4.00	6.38	3	1
Buccaneers	0.75	5.38	1	3
Seahawks	4.00	5.25	3	1
Cardinals	2.25	5.25	1	3
Steelers	2.50	4.81	3	1
Broncos	5.25	4.75	4	0
Panthers	0.00	4.63	1	3
Cowboys	3.50	4.50	3	1
Packers	4.75	4.33	2	1
49ers	0.75	3.80	1	3
Titans	0.00	3.63	1	3
Texans	2.00	3.19	3	1
Redskins	1.25	3.13	2	2
Chiefs	1.00	1.88	2	2
Jaguars	0.25	1.75	1	3
Dolphins	0.00	1.56	1	3
Bears	-1.75	1.50	1	3
Jets	-1.25	1.13	1	3
Browns	-2.25	0.75	0	4
Bengals	-1.00	0.63	1	3
Lions	-0.50	-0.19	1	3
Chargers	-1.00	-0.56	1	3
Colts	-1.75	-0.75	1	3

Now, we see that the Vikings might actually be the best team in the league and it drops the Eagles down to the 5 spot, and moves the Bills up to the 3 spot.  Also the Browns are no longer the worst team in the league, the Colts are.

The Rams at 3-1, are very similar to the 2-2 Bills.  This is a home game for the Rams on a west coast trip, but it's always easier to go west than it is to come east.  The Bills left for L.A. today, so if they don't adjust for the time change, it will feel like they are playing at 4:35pm our time, much better than feeling like a 10am game.  Slight edge to the Rams on this one, but, I think the Bills win.